Coincident Indicators
Economic data points that move in tandem with the overall economy, reflecting current conditions.
What is Coincident Indicators?
Coincident indicators are economic statistics that change at approximately the same time as the overall economy — they move with the business cycle and reflect the current state of economic activity rather than predicting or confirming past trends. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Coincident Indicators includes four components: employees on nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales. Together, the four coincident indicators paint a real-time picture of economic activity. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses coincident indicator data — along with other measures — when officially dating recessions and expansions.
Example
During the brief but sharp COVID-19 recession (February–April 2020), coincident indicators collapsed simultaneously: nonfarm payrolls fell 20 million in April, industrial production fell 16%, and personal income (ex-transfers) declined sharply — all moving together in real time as the economy locked down.