Durable Goods Orders
A monthly economic report measuring new orders for manufactured goods expected to last three or more years.
What is Durable Goods Orders?
The durable goods orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the dollar value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods designed to last three years or more — including aircraft, machinery, computers, appliances, and defense equipment. It is a leading indicator of industrial production and capital expenditure trends. Because airplane orders (a single Boeing order can total billions) can cause large swings, analysts often focus on 'core capital goods orders' — non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft — as a cleaner signal of business investment intentions. A sustained increase signals business confidence and future manufacturing activity; sustained declines suggest economic softening.
Example
In December 2022, US durable goods orders fell 4.5% month-over-month, driven by a 26% plunge in transportation equipment (primarily aircraft). However, core capital goods orders (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) rose 0.2%, suggesting underlying business investment remained steady. This distinction between headline and core data is crucial: Boeing booking or canceling a large order can make headline durable goods appear highly volatile, obscuring the true underlying investment trend.