Yield Curve Slope (10y − 2y)

Macroeconomics
Updated Apr 2026 • Has calculator

The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — a key recession indicator.

What is Yield Curve Slope?

The yield curve slope is the difference between long-term and short-term Treasury yields — most commonly the 10-year minus the 2-year. A normal (positive) curve means long-term rates exceed short-term rates, reflecting expectations of economic growth and higher future inflation. An inverted (negative) curve — where short-term rates are higher — has preceded every US recession since the 1950s, typically by 12–24 months. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses the 10y-2y spread as an input to its recession probability model. The spread turned negative in 2022 and remained inverted through much of 2024, one of the longest inversions on record.

Formula

Slope = 10-Year Yield − 2-Year Yield

Worked Example

Worked example — US Treasury — Q1 2024

March 2024

Step 1  10-year Treasury yield (March 2024): 4.20%
Step 2  2-year Treasury yield (March 2024): 4.62%
Step 3  Slope = 4.20% − 4.62% = −0.42%
Step 4  → Inverted curve: 2-year yields exceeded 10-year, signalling elevated recession concern

Source: US Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (2024-03-31)

Calculate Yield Curve Slope

Current 10-year US Treasury yield

Current 2-year US Treasury yield

10y − 2y Spread

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Not investment advice.

How to Interpret Yield Curve Slope

< -0.5
Deeply Inverted (< −0.5%) — strong recession signal historically
-0.5 – 0
Mildly Inverted (−0.5% to 0%) — caution; watch macro data
0 – 1
Flat to Slightly Positive (0–1%) — uncertain outlook
1 – 2
Normal Positive (1–2%) — growth expectations intact
> 2
Steep Curve (> 2%) — strong growth or early recovery signal
Sources
  1. FRED — 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury (T10Y2Y)
  2. US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates